Trade Preparation AUDUSD 4/11/2024

The H4 chart for AUD/USD shows a clear downtrend that has been ongoing since early October. This downtrend is indicative of a markdown phase in Wyckoff terms, suggesting that sellers are in control.
There is no significant evidence of accumulation or re-accumulation yet, as price continues to form lower highs and lower lows.

Signs of Weakness: The sustained lower lows and lower highs in the price action indicate a strong markdown phase, with sellers dominating. This suggests that rallies might be seen as short-selling opportunities until a more definitive phase change occurs.
Potential Preliminary Support: Around the most recent lows (near 0.6550), we might observe preliminary support, but the downtrend does not show signs of accumulation or strong buyer interest at this level.

Volume on Declines: There are volume spikes on downward movements, which typically suggest strong selling interest. This supports the idea of continued markdown and resistance to bullish attempts.
Volume on Rallies: Volume tends to diminish on rallies, indicating weak buying interest and supporting the downtrend. This confirms that sellers remain dominant.

Shorting Rallies: Look for shorting opportunities on rallies or minor retracements, as the primary trend on this timeframe remains bearish.
Potential Buy Signals: Only consider long entries if we observe a spring-like event (a temporary breach of support followed by a quick recovery) accompanied by strong volume, which might indicate the start of an accumulation phase.

The H1 chart also confirms the overall downtrend, with price making consistent lower highs and lows. This timeframe aligns with the H4 markdown phase, showing shorter-term rallies that fail to gain momentum.
The price remains under selling pressure, and there is no visible sign of re-accumulation or significant buyer interest.

Secondary Tests of Resistance: The rallies on the H1 chart tend to test resistance but lack follow-through, which often results in another leg down. These secondary tests can be used as entry points for short positions if they align with resistance levels and show rejection.
Absence of Accumulation Signs: So far, there is no evidence of a spring or preliminary support that would suggest accumulation. The price action continues to favor short positions.

Volume on Rejections: Volume tends to spike on rejection of resistance levels, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Weak Buying Volume: Lower volume on upward moves confirms weak buying interest, suggesting that rallies are likely to be short-lived.

Shorting Near Resistance: Focus on shorting opportunities near resistance levels. Look for signs of rejection with high volume on rallies for high-probability entries.
Caution on Longs: Avoid long positions unless there is a clear change in structure, such as a spring event or volume-based support around a key level.

The M15 chart provides a granular view of the downtrend within the H1 and H4 markdown phases. It shows minor retracements within the broader downtrend, useful for timing entries at resistance levels.
Price oscillates within smaller swings but remains overall bearish, consistent with the larger timeframes.

Upthrusts at Resistance: Watch for minor upthrusts near resistance on this timeframe. These are brief pushes above resistance that quickly fail, often providing excellent shorting opportunities in alignment with the downtrend.
Volume Confirmation: Look for volume spikes at resistance levels, indicating a potential short entry. Springs are not expected here unless there’s a sign of broader accumulation on higher timeframes.

Volume on Rejections: Volume spikes at resistance confirm seller interest. These volume surges act as indicators for timing short entries.
Weak Volume on Rallies: Rallies with low volume reinforce the bearish trend, indicating that buyers lack strength, making resistance levels ideal for short entries.

Entry at Resistance: Look for upthrust patterns with volume confirmation at resistance to time entries on the short side.
Stop Placement: Place stops slightly above recent resistance peaks to manage risk in case of a breakout.
Take Profit: Use lower support zones on M15 or let the trade run in alignment with the H4 trend.

The AUD/USD analysis across H4, H1, and M15 charts suggests a continuation of the downtrend with shorting opportunities:

Bearish Bias: The overall trend across all timeframes is bearish, with shorting opportunities on rallies and resistance rejections.
Volume as Confirmation: Rising volume on downward moves and weak volume on rallies reinforce the markdown phase.
Timing Short Entries: Use the M15 chart to enter short positions at resistance, with volume spikes confirming resistance rejections.